Author Archives: Mackey Martin

About Mackey Martin

I grew up in Texas, and relocated to Arizona with my family in the early 90's. Since then, I have been a REALTOR based in the Phoenix metro area that has helped hundreds of people relocate to and from Arizona.

Knowing when to exit the game, Mackey Martin, March 17, 2014

The news continues to be dismal and according to the data you will see to follow we continue to gather inventory.  Gauging from the “Market Index” above our numbers are still moving against the sellers and all indications are that they must have their numbers realistic to close and record their properties, or the end result will be that they will be yet another “failed” listing to be documented within MLS data.  A seller told me yesterday that “they needed a specific number”, yet all data indicates that their “need” and real market value do not line up.  If you’ve ever watched a good craps table in Las Vegas you will notice that when everything is going well all players typically choose to stay in the game, however when the energy changes at the table and the house starts winning. . . trust me ”MANY” feel their luck will change so they stay in the game.  When people see the energy pattern switch, they decide to take their money off the table and move onto another game within the Casino. You can apply that same thought process to the emotional thinking of the seller and the reason our inventory is growing so profoundly is simply the sellers feel their luck will change.  If a seller is sitting on equity in their home, then fold your cards and take your money off the table if indeed you need to exit the market of this investment.  Many sellers will hold and miss this season for liquidating this asset.  During a good majority of my career one could go out and project a market, but there are too many variables to wager one’s equity on a market like this.  With the continued turmoil nationally and internationally none of us has a crystal ball as to where we are headed.

This blog is written concerning preservation of one’s estate.  Whether you put on the hat of a buyer or a seller, ultimately both want to protect their portfolio be it fixed or liquid. Accurate pricing is the goal for the seller, and we believe this continues to be a good time to list if priced to the market.

Rates as of March 14, 2014

Jumbo 30 year fixed 4.25{860953a1877e6b70af6959a18268dc0e8c7ef84e3a910c2e4c2963e24bc45469}

Jumbo 7/1 Arm 3.125{860953a1877e6b70af6959a18268dc0e8c7ef84e3a910c2e4c2963e24bc45469}

Conforming 30-year fixed 4.375{860953a1877e6b70af6959a18268dc0e8c7ef84e3a910c2e4c2963e24bc45469}

Below is data extracted from “The Cromford Report” which as you can see is as of March 13, 2014

March 17 – The National Association of Home Builders published their Housing Market Index today. The top line number advanced slightly from 46 to 47 indicating a slight improvement in home builder confidence at the national level. However readings below 50 suggest that more builders think conditions are poor than think conditions are good. The improvement was entirely in the mid-west and south which advanced from 49 to 52 and from 46 to 48 respectively. The northeast fell 5 points from 34 to 29 while the west also fell 5 points from 58 to 53.

The west has fallen 18 points in the last 2 months from 71 to 53. This is far more than any of the other three regions.

March 16 – Last week was another record week for price cuts – 3,232 in the last 7 days. Only 237 price increases.

For the same period in 2013 we saw 1,495 price cuts and 300 price increases. These numbers are for Greater Phoenix (excluding out of territory) and suggest that sellers are meeting a lot of competition from each other because of the unusually low demand. With only just over 29,000 active listings in Greater Phoenix this wouldn’t normally be necessary.

March 15 – We are now in mid-March yet the number of active listings continues to grow. Although the total number (all areas & types, including UCB) is quite normal at 30,314, we would usually be seeing declining numbers by now because March through May is the peak season for active listings going under contract. If the number of active listings manages to grow even slightly during March then it is likely to soar during the second half of the year, unless there is a major change in market direction. If we exclude UCB listings, the total today is 27,056 which is the highest we have seen since April 2011 and 60{860953a1877e6b70af6959a18268dc0e8c7ef84e3a910c2e4c2963e24bc45469} higher than March 15, 2013.

New listings continue to arrive much faster than last year, but not in excessive numbers. We have seen 26,353 year to date, 11{860953a1877e6b70af6959a18268dc0e8c7ef84e3a910c2e4c2963e24bc45469} more than the 23,813 we counted last year. This would normally not be considered excessive, but the shortage of buyers means there are more new listings than market needs.

The date on which the number of active listings peak is one of the things that indicate the strength of the market. Here is what we have seen since 2001 (all areas & types):

The date for 2014 is not yet determined. March 15 is our best candidate so far, but March 22 could still be higher. Nine of the thirteen years above had earlier peak dates than March 15. However six of the thirteen had more active listings at the peak than we have now.